Colorado Springs shoppers who reach for fresh strawberries year-round may soon face higher prices at the checkout. The Trump administration is investigating whether Mexican growers are selling winter-harvested strawberries in the United States at unfairly low prices, a determination that could lead to tariffs on those imports and, ultimately, higher costs for shoppers.
If tariffs are imposed, it would mark a break from decades of largely duty-free trade for Mexican strawberries under U.S. free trade agreements. The stakes are significant for consumers because a whopping 98% of U.S. strawberry imports came from Mexico last year, with shipments worth more than $1 billion, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the U.S. becomes particularly reliant on Mexican strawberries during the winter months, when domestic production slows.
The case was brought by Strawberry Growers for Fair Trade, a coalition of Florida strawberry producers, whose berries are typically harvested during the winter months. Mexican imports have grown faster than demand for winter strawberries, taking market share from U.S. growers by selling at lower prices, said the lead counsel for the coalition. If the case succeeds, he expects the tariffs to have a "relatively modest" impact on consumer prices while helping U.S. farmers compete.
A recent parallel case offers a cautionary note on price projections. Tomato prices were 12.8% higher last month than a year earlier, according to the Consumer Price Index, after the U.S. imposed a roughly 17% antidumping duty on most Mexican tomatoes last July. However, it would be a mistake to attribute that increase entirely to the tariffs: adverse weather conditions in tomato-growing regions of Mexico and freezing temperatures in parts of Florida during the first two months of this year also played a role, an April report from the U.S. Department of Commerce found.
The process still has several steps before any new costs reach grocery shelves. The Commerce Department is expected to release its preliminary finding in the strawberry case, which could call for higher tariffs, by August 18, and it will likely be several months before a final determination is made. Even after Commerce issues its preliminary finding, the tariff rate could still change — as happened last year in the case of certain Italian pasta imports, when Commerce initially proposed additional antidumping duties as high as 92% before ultimately lowering the rates to below 10% after reviewing additional information from the pasta makers.
The Commerce Department's preliminary finding, due by August 18, will be the next key indicator of whether and how sharply strawberry prices could change for local consumers.