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Fire Is Calming, But the Burn Scar Isn't Safe Yet: Flash Flood Risk Near Colorado Springs This Monsoon Season

By Jamie Rivera | July 28, 2026, Staff Reporter
Published July 28, 2026
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The Aspen Acres Fire is moving in the right direction. Evacuation orders have been lifted across the communities most affected — Wetmore, Beulah, Rye, San Isabel, and Colorado City — and the fire now stands at about 101,921 acres with 61% containment. At 9th largest in Colorado history, it has been a major fire, and the recovery is underway.

But as the fire calms, monsoon season has arrived, and the burn scar is creating a different kind of danger that COS families planning outdoor trips south of the city need to understand.

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Why Burn Scars and Rain Are a Dangerous Combination

Soil that has been burned in a wildfire doesn't behave like normal ground. The heat of the fire bakes a waxy, water-repellent layer into the soil. Rain that would normally soak into the ground instead runs off immediately — the way water runs off a waxed car. In a major wildfire, this layer can develop across tens of thousands of acres.

During Colorado's monsoon season, afternoon thunderstorms can drop significant rainfall quickly. In normal terrain, that water absorbs, flows gradually into streams, and dissipates. In a burn scar, the same rainfall becomes an immediate surface flow — it picks up ash, debris, and loosened soil as it runs downhill, and it can move extremely fast. Flash floods and debris flows can develop within minutes of rainfall in a burn scar area. They don't require rain to be falling above you. A storm three miles uphill from a canyon can send a wall of water and mud down that canyon with no warning at the bottom.

Where the Risk Is

The burn scar area is located south of Colorado Springs, primarily in Custer and Pueblo counties — Beulah, Colorado City, Rye, Wetmore, and the San Isabel area. The CDOT has issued alerts warning drivers of flash flooding, mudslides, and reduced visibility on state highways near these burn scar zones.

If your family has hiking, camping, or driving plans in this corridor — or anywhere that involves canyon roads southeast or southwest of Colorado Springs — the monsoon weather pattern should be a factor in your planning. The risk is highest in the afternoon, when Colorado's classic summer thunderstorms typically build and hit.

Planning Around Monsoon and Burn Scar Risk

The good news is that the timing of these storms is relatively predictable. Colorado's summer monsoon pattern typically brings moisture that builds through the late morning, peaks in thunderstorm activity between noon and 4:00 p.m., and may persist into early evening. Mornings in the Rockies are typically clearer.

For families with outdoor plans in or near burn scar territory:

  • Plan activities for early morning and commit to being off canyon roads and out of low-lying areas by noon.
  • Check weather forecasts and watch for flash flood watches or warnings from the National Weather Service before heading out.
  • If you're caught in a canyon during a storm, move to higher ground immediately — don't wait to see whether the flooding arrives.
  • Be cautious on highways through the area after storms, as roads can be damaged by debris flows.

Air Quality Is Improving

On a positive note, the incoming monsoon moisture is improving air quality across the Colorado Springs region. Wildfire smoke from the Aspen Acres area has been dissipating as humidity increases and fire activity decreases. Current air quality in COS is expected to be in the "Good" range. Families who have been limiting outdoor activities due to smoke should find conditions improving this week.

What's Next

Monitor burn scar flash flood conditions through the National Weather Service at weather.gov, CDOT alerts at cotrip.org, and local news. The Aspen Acres Fire information is updated daily at inciweb.nwcg.gov. As recovery continues in the affected communities, the burn scar will remain a flooding hazard through this monsoon season and potentially into next year's spring runoff season as well.


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